Results

Douglas Hagedorn and Nicole Timoshenko

4 - Results

The outputs produced by this study indicate that while the development in the central area of Manitoulin island may be responsible for the degradation of a large portion of the available land area in terms of suitability, a number of contiguous parcels of land on the island stand, nevertheless, as valuable, high priority locations where Alvar Conservation Initiatives could be implemented.

Assessing Land Suitability for Conservation

Figure 4-1: Areas Facing Anthropogenic Disturbances

The weighted overlay performed in Objective One produced an anthropogenic disturbance map [Figure 4-1] that depicts the relative disturbance to natural areas that results from the presence of nearby roads, agricultural land use, and urban areas. The natural areas which face the most disturbance are located in close proximity to one or a combination of these variables. Anthropogenic disturbance is ranked on a scale of 0-100, with a 0 representing low to no disturbance, and 100 representing a very high degree of disturbance. The areas facing the greatest amounts of disturbance are mostly superimposed upon the road network, giving the risk map its grid-like spatial pattern. The presence of high levels of anthropogenic disturbance is most apparent near the centre of Manitoulin Island, surrounding the inland lakes. This may be attributed to the popularity of Manitoulin Island as a summer tourism and vacation destination; the inland lakes are desirable cottage locations, requiring a connected road system, and create the need for built up commercial areas in relatively close proximity. The intensity of anthropogenic disturbance is diminished on both the eastern and western shores. The western shore is less populated and has a much less extensive road network, making anthropogenic disturbance less severe. The eastern shore is part of the Wikwemikong Unceded Indian Reserve 26, and exhibits less development activity than the rest of the island. These results suggest the most suitable areas for Alvar conservation will be located towards the western half of the island where development activity remains at a minimal level of intensity.

Targeting and Prioritizing Land Parcels for Conservation

The models developed for this research identified a total of 82 tracts of land suitable for conservation on Manitoulin Island with a contiguous area larger then 300 hectares. Within these 82 tracts a total of approximately 1,833 square kilometers of land was evaluated and prioritized for conservation potential. (See Figure 4-2: Parcel Conservation Priority).

The three most valuable parcels of land, as determined by this model and listed in descending order of value, can be found along the southwestern shore of the Island from Lyne point to Burnt Island, at the Foxy-Gore Bay Airport - Rozel's Alvar Complex, and at the Sheguindah Alvar site. While the Foxy-Gore Bay Airport - Rozel's Alvar Complex parcel may have experienced a certain amount of degradation from airport development, this parcel scored highly in terms of the distance from evaluation parcel centroid to nearest shoreline, the presence of catalogued Alvar study sites, and the percent proportion of Alvar land cover and should be considered very high priority locations for Alvar conservation. Not surprisingly, the highest and second highest priority value ranges of evaluated land parcels encompass nearly all the catalogued study sites. (See Figure 4-3: Parcel Conservation Priority with Catalogued Sites)

One general trend that seems to be suggested by the outputs is that the more advanced development that has occurred on the mid-eastern area of the island, along Highway six between Little Current and South Baymouth, has caused a level of land degradation that has not yet been experienced on the western end of the island. In this light, a significant step towards promoting Alvar conservation on the island would be the stringent restriction of highway development in the western portion of Manitoulin. Additionally, the high value scores of land parcels located near to native reservation lands suggest that the land use practices that characterize these reserves should be encouraged as yet another way of promoting Alvar conservation.

The relatively high conservation parcel ranking and low level of road development on Barrie Island suggests that this site may also represent another high value candidates for Alvar conservation initiatives, even though its total calculated MCE is not as high as the three primary sites identified as the top candidates for conservation. Additionally, though Vidal island's diminutive size excluded it from being included in the selection of final evaluation parcels, there is reason to believe that this site may have had a high value for conservation priority as well. In these instances, the isolation away from intense human development afforded on these two islands may provide an extra level of value that is not accounted for in this GIS model.

The characteristics of the thematic maps in Figures 4-4 through 4-9 illustrate that very few individual parcels of land consistently scored higher than all other parcels in all aspects of the evaluation. Beyond the top three candidate sites identified as 'high priority' targets for conservation, performance within each of the six individual criteria evaluated was highly varied for the 'moderately valuable' parcels identified.

Individual Prioritization Outputs:

Figure 4-4: Parcel size in hectares - Higher values are more desirable	Figure 4-5: Proximity from parcel centroid to nearest shoreline - Lower values are more desirable
Figure 4-6: Presence of catalogued Alvar study sites - Higher values are more desirable	Figure 4-7: Proximity to native reservations and government parks - Lower values are more desirable
Figure 4-8: Mean anthropogenic threat value per parcel - Lower values are more desirable	Figure 4-9: Percent proportion of Alvar land cover per parcel - Higher values are more desirable