Future Agriculture Production in Southern Ontario Using GIS Climate Prediction Models
The global agriculture community is becoming increasingly aware of the effects that climate change has on the yield and production of crops. Numerous climate prediction models have shown that there will be a significant change in our future climate, which will directly impact the way that agriculture practices are carried out worldwide. Climate change will have a direct impact on the two most important variables contributing to crop production, temperature and precipitation. The effects that climate change imposes on crop production will then have a subsequent impact on the economic basis of the agriculture industry. This project did assess the effects of changing temperatures and precipitation due to climate change have on the productivity of Winter Wheat crops in Southern Ontario. This project created an accurate model using ArcGIS for future climate predictions with the use of past and current climate data. The created climate model is used to generate a prediction for future Winter Wheat crop production in Southern Ontario. The model proved to be effective in producing a future crop yield prediction with statistical significance in relation to the climate model predictions. The final crop output produced from created model was 1,989,994 tonnes for the years 2040 to 2069. This puts future econmic and crop output within 1% of the current levels. Furthermore, the model generated valuable information for determining economic effects on the Southern Ontario agriculture industry.