Research Findings: Objective 1
Objective 1: To determine Factors and Variables for the Project as they relate to Crop Yield and Future Climate Change
In order to complete the research, multiple data sets and factors of crop yield were required. First, the historic and present yields of winter wheat in the study area was sourced. This sourced data resulted in average annual yeilds of 1,142,317 tonnes for 1986 to 2005 and 1,985,117 for 2006 to 2017 (OMFRA, 2019). The Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs documented annual crop yields based on the recorded crop outputs of Southern Ontario Winter Wheat farms in the agructural sector. This was required in order to create the baseline of crop yield with which any changes will be evaluated against. This data was sourced from Agriculture Canada’s Annual Crop Inventory.
The second factor required to complete this analysis is past data on the temperature and precipitation for the time period 1986-2005. This data was sourced from Environment Canada’s historical yields and was also used to create the baseline from which to measure change. This resulted in average temperatures 17.92 and precipitation od 2.58mm for 1986 to 2005. The third factor sourced was a data set on the future anticipated climate models for Ontario. This data was sourced from the Ontario Climate Change Portal. This set contained data on future precipitation and temperature for Ontario as well as spatially referencing all results. These two variables of will be used as the input factors for future crop yields.