Objective 3: To compare and Interpret the Anticipated Changes for Winter Wheat Under Past and Future Yields Predicitons
The past crop yields and climate indicators were used to create a baseline with which to compare changes in crop yield over time. For the time period of 1986-2005, the mean temperature during the growing months, June-August, was 17.92°C and the mean precipitation was 2.58mm/day. The precipitation during this time period is seen in Figure 2 and the temperature is seen in Figure 3. This led to an average winter wheat production of 1,142,317 tones annually (Figure 4). The current time period (2006-2017) has a mean temperature of 17.1°C (Figure 5) and mean precipitation of 2.19mm per day (Figure 6). The average annual output during this time period is 1,985,117 tones (Figure 7). The future climate models show a predicted mean temp of 21.15°C in the months of June - August in Ontario for the time period 2040-2069 (Figure 8). This is a significant increase in temperature from the current mean temperature of 17.1°C. The expected precipitation during this time period increases from the 2006-2017 average to 2.26mm per day (Figure 9). Based on the formula used in Objective 2, this generates an average winter wheat yield of 1,989,994 tones (Figure 10). This finding reveals that winter wheat yield will recieve a slight incremental increase under future precipitation and temperature changes if all other variables remain stable. All results are also orginzied in Table 1. for ease of user interpretation.
Table 1. Past, Present & Future Results
| |
Past 1986- 2005 |
Present 2006 - 2017 |
Future 2040 - 2069 |
| Avg Precipation |
2.58mm |
2.19mm |
2.26mm |
| Avg Temperature |
17.92C |
17.1C |
21.15C |
| Annual Crop Output |
1,142,317 Tonnes |
1,985,116 Tonnes |
1,989,994 Tonnes |
Table 2. Past Present & Future Maps
Figure 2: Past Ontario Average Precipitation Model from year 1986 - 2005
Figure 3: Past Ontario Average Temperature Model from year 1986 - 2005
Figure 4: Past Ontario Winter Wheat Output Production from year 1986 - 2005
Figure 5: Current Ontario Mean Temperature Model from year 2006 - 2018
Figure 6: Current Ontario Mean Precipitation Model from year 2006 - 2018
Figure 7: Current Ontario Winter Wheat Output Production Model from year 2006 - 2018
Figure 8: Future Ontario Mean Precipitation Prediction Model from year 2040 - 2069
Figure 9: Future Ontario Mean Temperature Prediction Model from year 2040 - 2069
Figure 10: Future Ontario Winter Wheat Output Production Prediction Model from year 2040 - 2069
