Key findings from this study are:
- From 2004-2017, MPB rapidly expanded northward through the interior of B.C. and into Alberta, evenutally tapering off suggesting non-linear and non-uniform rates and patterns of spread.
- Tree data acquired in 2011 suggest high percent composition of pine trees and pine tree volume near the historical extent of the MPB possibly providing connectivity to new habitat in the future.
- Low-emission ensemble CMIP5 projections suggest that -40oC temperatures most likely will not be limiting the MPB in its northern range in the future. Projected warmer temperatures suggest that MPB populations will have most likely have higher overwinter survival rates.
- If travelling at rates similar to 2004-2010, by 2100, the MPB could spread well outside its historic range into the boreal forest from central Yukon almost to the northwestern border of manitoba (Fig. 12). MPB switching to jack pine as their primary host within the boreal forest could lead to different patterns than seen with lodgepole pine.
Fig. 12: Fig. 11: Cost-distance surface showing the predicted spread of the MPB until 2100