Objective 2: Develop a Model that Produces a Multi-Modal Water Transport Network for Various Budgetary Scenarios
Developing this model is a multi-step process, but one which follows logical order (Figure 2). As this project is centered around network analysis, vector data will be used because of its precision and network capabilities. The goal of this model is to create a network consisting of water main and truck-cistern routes and will be run multiple times given different budgets.
The first step in this model is to define different budget scenrios that will govern the output of the model. First, there is a budget of $26,000,000: this scenario reflects the current funding established for the project of connecting the residents of the Six Nations community to the Six Nations Water Treatment Plant. Although additional funding is expected, it is important to model this scenario in case this additional funding is never secured. Next, a budget of $41,000,000 incorporates the funding expected from the Federal government in addition to the funding currently secured for this project. Next, $75,000,000; given the reasoning for the scenarios defined by Budget 2 and Budget 4, this scenario serves as a middle ground. The main purpose of this scenario is to better define trends viewed as a function of budget (i.e. trends in number of wells serviced by water mains versus budget or number of truck networks needed versus budget). Finally, a $120,000,000 budget serves as a best-case scenario for this project, defining a scenario in which every location within the study area can be incorporated into the water main network. Although it has the optimal outcome, it is likely the least probable simply due to its cost.
Next, this model must identify groups of nodes (wells). A grouping analysis tool is used to divide all nodes into a specified number of groups, using analysis fields and spatial constraints to develop the groups appropriately. Network analyst is then used to develop a least-cost transportation route for each group, using a single specified node (such as a treatment plant) as a source and length as the cost parameter. Cost per unit length of pipeline is used to determine the total cost of each route. This value is used in a cost-benefit ratio to rank the groups from most to least beneficial (Route 1 being the most beneficial). Iterations of building each network and subtracting its cost from the budget are conducted until no more water main routes can be constructed under the given budget. All remaining groups are then designated as part of the truck-cistern network, which is constructed using the residual budget. Using the initial cost of installing the truck-citsern network, annual operating cost of the truck-cistern network, and the residual budget, the length of time over which the truck-cistern network can run is determined.
Outputs for this model are a multi-modal water transportation network that connects all nodes to a source node, as well as a length of time over which the network can operate under the given budget.
Figure 3: A flow chart describing the logical order based on which the model was developed.