This study has four objectives that are described in detail throughout the research approach section. Figure 2 is a generalized conceptual model illustrating the step-by-step process of each objective in a colour-coded fashion. In summary, Objective 1 involves determination of variables and factors that were incorporated into the study. Objective 2 incorporates the layers created from the variables of Objective 1, into two Multi-Criteria Evaluation models; a Physical Geographic Risk MCE and Vulnerability Risk MCE. Objective 3 entails the creation of a cost surface on which a least-cost pathway analysis is performed to create a final evacuation model. Finally, Objective 4 describes various strategies to evaluate the validity of the model.
Objective 1: To define the physical geographic and vulnerability risk factors associated with secondary effects of a high-magnitude earthquake in the GVRD. Then, to define the variables incorporated in the cost surface and LCPA to identify optimal evacuation routes.
Objective 2: To identify zones of extreme to low physical geographic and vulnerability risk by creating two separate MCE risk models.
Objective 3: To run multiple LCPAs and identify optimal evacuation routes from determined high-risk areas following major roads leading out of the GVRD.
Objective 4: To apply the evacuation model to a scenario outlined by the BC emergency response plan and evaluate its strengths and weaknesses.
Figure 2: Overview of the research approach