Food security under economic globalization and climate change; land use change; integrated socio-economic / crop / climate modelling ; farmer behaviour.
Research Interests and Areas of Expertise
Over the next two generations, the globe faces an enormous human security challenge. We must adapt to rapid economic and climate change by creating a food system that provides adequate and appropriate nutrition for 9 billion people in a way that does not compromise vital ecosystem services including biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration. Within the broad area of “global food security in the 21st century,” I have spent my professional life developing an externally funded multi-disciplinary research programme on the links between food security, landuse, and global environmental/economic change.
In this, I have five distinct strands to my work.
I have used historic cases to combine work from a number of disciplines (including comparative history, development studies, landscape ecology, ecological economics, and political science) to identify food systems “vulnerable” to environmental change and published comparative work where relatively minor weather anomalies sparked major food-crises as a way of understanding how our own society may respond to similar shocks. In particular, I have explored the Irish Potato Famine, the “Great Famines” of the early 1300s, and the Ethiopian famine of the early 1980s.
In my opinion, we have adequate scientific knowledge to sustainably produce food in many parts of the world. However, farmers are not always able to use this knowledge. Therefore, I am interested in understanding the socio-economic factors that shape farmer decisions. This had led me to conduct empirical work (usually involving interviews, questionnaires or focus groups discussions) in a range of settings including: urban Thailand, rural Belize, and rural British Columbia. I have also supervised graduate students or post-doctoral researchers to do similar work in: the uplands of the UK, rural and urban Malawi, rural Ghana, and peri-urban Bangladesh.
Different landscapes provide different things: some provide low-cost food; some provide habitat conservation; others provide carbons sequestration; still others are resilient to climate change. I am interested in conducting research that explores the synergies and tradeoffs implied by different types of landscape. This work has been based on extensive collaboration with natural and social science colleagues and involved working on a range of topics in different ecological settings including: the contribution of the uplands of the UK to a range of ecosystem services, on land management in general and on the relation between crops and climate. My current work in this area is to explore trade offs between food, fibre and fuel production in different parts of the world.
Current crop-climate models used to project future food insecurity only capture the relationships between different types of crop and the climate and do not include how farmers may adapt to environmental or social change. However, farmer behaviour may either amplify or reduce the impact that climate change has on food productivity. As such, I have been working with large interdisciplinary teams to formally combine an understanding of farmer decision making with crop-climate models. In one recent analysis we explored the sensitivity of Chinese rice, wheat and maize harvests to drought and in another collected data at the farm scale in a number of African settings to use as a way of better understanding crop-climate model results. We have also worked at the global scale to understand what socio-economic, governance and geographic factors make food production vulnerable to drought.
I am involved in a partnership with American journalist Andrew Rimas. Together, we have co-authored two non-academic books on food, sustainability and global environmental change. The first, titled Beef: the Untold Story of how Milk, Muscle and Meat Shaped the World, (William Morrow, 2008) is an exploration of the evolution of western diets through time focusing on meat and dairy. The second book is called Empires of Food: Feast, Famine and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations (to be published in the summer of 2010 in North America by The Free Press and in the UK by Random Books) and is an examination of the history of global food production and shows how large scale food systems tend to decline during periods of climate change.
Selected Recent Publications
Abson, D., Fraser, E.D.G., Benton, T. (In press). Landscape diversity and the resilience of agricultural incomes: a portfolio analysis of land use patterns and economic returns from lowland agriculture. Agriculture and Food Security.
Fraser, E.D.G., Simelton, E. Termansen, M., Gossling, S., South, A. (Available on line). Vulnerability Hotspots: Integrating socio-economic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline in the future due to climate change induced drought. Agriculture and Forest Meteorology.
Fraser, E.D.G. (2011) Can economic, land use and climatic stresses lead to famine, disease, warfare and death? Using Europe's calamitous 14th century as a parable for the modern age. Ecological Economics. 70(7): 1269-1279.
Fraser, E.D.G. Termansen, M., Hubacek, K., Dougill, A., Quinn, C., Sendzimir, J. (2011) Assessing vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity to climate change in arid/semi-arid social ecological systems. Ecology and Society. 16(3): 3 [online]
Feeding Nine Billion video:
|Masters||Johnson, Rylea||Food systems and food security; evaluating the potential food produce auctions to operate as a key alternative food system.|
|Doctoral||Ohberg, Lisa||Role of food systems localization in community food security.|
|Doctoral||Scannell, Lauren||Global agri-food; globalization; power; international development; food security; food sovereignty; regional food systems; wild food products; food from the forest; food traditions; dietary and bio diversity|
|Doctoral||Vansteenkiste, Jennifer||Global food systems; food security; international development interventions; local alternative food systems; gender; Haiti.|
|Masters||2013||CoDyre, Michael||The Potential of Urban Agriculture in Guelph.|
|Masters||2012||Hazen, Shelly||Evaluating farm-level sustainability: analyzing how globalization affects farms in southern Ontario.|