FARE Graduate Research Symposium

This study provides the first comprehensive global assessment of how international sanctions affect agricultural productivity. Using data from 167 countries between 1985 and 2022, we combine the Global Sanctions Data base with USDA agricultural productivity measures and apply a two‑way fixed‑effects approach to isolate the impact of sanctions. Across all measures, sanctions are found to significantly reduce agricultural total factor productivity (TFP). Countries under sanction experience, on average, a 3% decline in agricultural productivity relative to non‑sanctioned countries. The severity of the impact grows with sanction intensity: each additional sanctioning country reduces agricultural TFP by about 1.1%, and each added sender–sanction‑type combination lowers it by roughly 0.4%. The design of sanctions also matters. Trade, financial, travel, arms, and military sanctions all show significant negative impacts on productivity, whereas other sanction categories do not. The magnitude of the impact varies by sender: UN sanctions reduce agricultural productivity by an estimated 11.9%, making them the most consequential. Sanctions imposed by the United States lower productivity by about 4.5%, while those from OECD members lead to a decline of roughly 3.4%. In contrast, EU‑only sanctions do not produce a statistically detectable effect. A set of robustness checks confirms the consistency of these findings. Overall, the evidence indicates that international sanctions can impose substantial and measurable costs on agricultural performance, with implications for food security, rural livelihoods, and economic resilience in targeted countries.

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Funded by U.S. Department of Agriculture and University of Guelph

Food production has adopted new technologies, including gene editing (GE), in the early twenty-first century. Unlike the insertion of genes from other species, gene editing modifies specific genes within an organism; however, most consumers remain unfamiliar with these technologies. Many consumers are also unaware that GE foods can improve animal welfare (e.g., hornless cattle avoid dehorning injuries) and enhance nutritional content (e.g., producing more beneficial omega-3 fatty acids). In addition, food technology neophobia and demographic characteristics significantly influence consumer perceptions of GE products. Data were collected in late October 2023 from English-speaking adults (18+) across all Canadian provinces except Quebec (excluded for language reasons), using a representative sample and a survey that captured demographics and presented neutral product descriptions alongside animal welfare and nutrition information in audio, written, and video formats. A Conditional Logit Model was used to estimate the probability of choosing gene-edited beef and milk based on product attributes and consumer characteristics. Results show that consumers are price sensitive and generally willing to buy milk and beef, but factors like gender, household size, and information format influence acceptance of GE products—especially for milk—while neophobia mainly affects how product attributes are evaluated rather than the decision to purchase. Willingness to pay for GE foods is generally negative—especially for beef—but varies by demographics, with women and older or highly neophobic consumers showing more resistance, while higher income, education, and younger age increase acceptance, and animal welfare information specifically improves WTP for GE milk. The findings suggest that communication strategies emphasizing animal welfare benefits may improve acceptance of GE milk but are less effective for beef products.

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Funded by Genome Canada

Canada has committed to reducing nitrous oxide emissions from fertilizer application by 30% below 2020 levels by 2030. Achieving this target requires understanding why nitrogen application rates remain high and how farmers perceive the productivity of nitrogen. By examining farmers’ subjective beliefs about the yield response to nitrogen, this study investigates how perceived marginal productivity shapes fertilizer decisions and resistance to nitrogen reductions. Using survey data from Ontario corn farmers, we elicit subjective nitrogen response functions and simulate profits under seven hypothetical nitrogen scenarios. Most farmers expect profits to increase with additional nitrogen and to decline when nitrogen is reduced, indicating that marginal nitrogen is widely perceived as profitable at current application levels. Cubic specifications best fit approximately 80% of subjective response curves, compared to 15% quadratic and 5% linear, suggesting that many farmers attribute relatively high productivity to the last units of nitrogen applied. Regression results reveal systematic heterogeneity: reliance on independent advisors, younger age, and larger farm size are associated with a higher probability of being categorized as “Extreme Peak (ON Highest).” This pattern implies diminishing effectiveness of later nitrogen units and lower perceived adjustment costs from cutting them. By proposing a belief-based framework for explaining fertilizer overapplication, this study contributes to a more behaviorally grounded understanding of nitrogen use and provides a foundation for designing more targeted and effective nitrogen-reduction policies.

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Funded by Food for Thought

This study argues the impact of information on consumer perception of cultured meat and found that the amount of information and acceptance level are positively correlated, that is, consumers are more inclined to accept cultural meat after obtaining more information. Simpler information and structure make it easier for consumers to accept cultured meat, while a more open environment has a positive impact on acceptance. Based on questionnaire survey data, this study analyzes the changes in consumer attitudes under different amounts of information and the locations where people receive information and explores its economic and social impact.

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Funded by McMaster University

Ontario's beef sector faces dual structural vulnerabilities: a heavy reliance on cattle and beef inflows from Western Canada, and a strong dependence on the U.S. export market. Additionally, provincial transportation regulations impose significant frictions on inter-provincial trade. This thesis extends a partial equilibrium model to quantify welfare impacts from: an FMD outbreak with zoning; a U.S. import ban on Ontario-origin live cattle and beef; and the removal of Ontario's transportation regulations. Simulation results indicate that the FMD outbreak generates the largest aggregate welfare loss (-1.73%), exceeding even the impact of a U.S. import ban (-1.40%). In contrast, deregulation leads to a slight welfare decline (0.05%), as the loss in local producer surplus due to intensified interprovincial competition outweighs consumer gains.

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Funded by Ontario Agri-Food Innovation Alliance, a collaboration between the Government of Ontario and the University of Guelph

Rising geopolitical tensions through the imposition of high and retaliatory tariffs and trade sanctions have intensified, and diplomatic spats now occur frequently, contributing to heightened trade uncertainty and anti-globalization sentiments in global markets. The uncertainty raises trade costs and increases risks in sectors characterized by high substitutability, making the agri-food sector of Canada highly sensitive to political shocks. Using OMAFA trade data from 1989 to 2021, this study investigates the impact of geopolitical tensions—measured via UN voting-based diplomatic disagreement and trade sanctions—on Canada’s total and disaggregated agri-food exports and examines the mitigating role of economic diplomacy. We find that economic diplomacy significantly increases total exports and mitigates the negative effects of geopolitical conflicts, particularly trade sanctions on total agri-food exports. At the disaggregated level, sanctions sharply reduce bulk and intermediate exports, while diplomatic disagreement primarily affects consumer-oriented goods. These findings underscore the relevance of economic diplomacy as a policy instrument for safeguarding Canada’s agri-food trade during periods of geopolitical tensions. Maintaining diplomatic presence and engagement can reduce trade vulnerability, support market access in highly competitive commodity markets, and enhance the resilience of export relationships in an increasingly uncertain global environment.

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Funded by Sustainable Canadian Agricultural Partnership, a federal-provincial territorial initiative

This thesis assesses when hydroponic vertical farming (HVF) can be a viable tool for improving food security. Although often promoted as climate‑resilient, the economics of HVF depend heavily on local conditions. The study compares three regions, Manitoulin Island (Ontario), Whitehorse (Yukon), and Trinidad and Tobago, by testing how changes in electricity prices, crop yields, market prices, and financing costs affect financial performance. The results show clear regional differences. Manitoulin Island and Trinidad and Tobago can achieve positive returns with manageable financial risk, provided farms operate at sufficient scale and sell at strong market prices. In Yukon, however, high energy costs and market constraints make HVF a much riskier investment, with a high likelihood of financial loss. Crop choice is a decisive factor. High‑value niche crops like microgreens can be profitable, but only if local markets remain deep enough to absorb supply. When production shifts toward lower‑margin leafy greens that match local dietary needs, profits shrink and payback periods lengthen. Overall, the study finds that the success of HVF depends less on the technology itself and more on crop selection, business scale, and regional cost structures. As such, policymakers should treat HVF not as a universal solution but as a strategy whose viability varies across communities and market conditions.

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Funded by University of Guelph

This study evaluates whether the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has improved the export efficiency of China’s agricultural products to African countries. To capture both trade potential and inefficiency, we employ a stochastic frontier gravity model in which BRI participation enters through a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) structure embedded in the inefficiency scaling equation. This framework allows policy exposure to affect trade performance through efficiency improvements rather than directly shifting the trade frontier. A key empirical challenge is the non-random nature of BRI participation. Countries engaged in the initiative often differ systematically in institutional quality, political alignment, connectivity, and resource endowments. To address this policy selection bias, we implement the Covariate Balancing Propensity Score (CBPS) method to construct inverse probability weights that balance observable covariates between treated and control observations. CBPS is particularly effective in our setting, where the number of comparable control observations is limited, because it directly optimizes covariate balance rather than relying solely on propensity score prediction. Using the CBPS-weighted sample, we estimate a weighted stochastic frontier gravity model. The results show that BRI participation significantly reduces trade inefficiency and enhances China’s agricultural export efficiency to African partner countries. These findings provide robust evidence that BRI-induced connectivity and facilitation mechanisms contribute not only to trade expansion but also to efficiency gains in agricultural exports.

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Self Funded

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