Biomathematics Seminar Series - Qi Deng

Speaker: Qi Deng, York University, Canada

Title: Modeling infectious diseases: understanding within-host mechanisms and population-level interventions

Abstract: In this talk, we will first discuss the within-host viral dynamics of mpox infection. Mathematical models were proposed to examine the interactions between host immune responses and the virus across three distinct infection routes (intravenous, intradermal, and intrarectal). The models were calibrated using viral load data from macaques infected through each of these three infection routes. The infectiousness of each infected macaque was calculated to uncover specific characteristics driving the recent outbreaks. These observations demonstrated that close contact during sexual activity is a significant route of viral transmission, with presymptomatic spread playing a crucial role in the 2022-2023 multi-country outbreak and potentially also in the 2023-2024 multi-source outbreak. Leveraging model predictions and infectiousness data, we assessed the impact of antiviral drugs on interventions against mpox infection. Model simulations suggested that early administration of antiviral drugs can reduce peak viral loads, even in individuals with compromised immunity, particularly in cases of infection through skin-to-skin and sexual contact.  In the second part of the talk (if time permits), we will discuss an agent-based model with a dynamically sexual contact network that was developed to simulate the individual-level dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) infection. With the calibrated model, we then evaluated the impact of different vaccine program on the CT burden and its long-term sequalae.

For a list of upcoming Biomathematics Seminars please visit the following website https://mathstat.uoguelph.ca/node/414