Hong Li | Gordon S. Lang School of Business and Economics

Hong Li

Associate Professor
Department of Economics and Finance
Email: 
lihong@uoguelph.ca

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Accepting graduate students fall 2022: Yes

Accepting graduate students fall 2023: Yes

My research is largely inspired by the practical needs in the insurance industry. The majority of my research has focused on developing and applying cutting-edge statistics and machine learning algorithms, as well as economic theories on pivotal actuarial problems, including the measurement, pricing, and management of longevity risk, health risk, automobile risk, and climate risk, and agriculture risk. My research is sponsored by both the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), along with many other institutions. I have many publications in top-tier insurance, actuarial science, and demography journals. I received the 2018 Bob Alting von Geusau Prize for the best paper published in ASTIN Bulletin with a Financial Risk or Enterprise Risk Management focus. I am a fellow of the Society of Actuaries and an associate fellow of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries. 

 

My personal webpage.

 

Guide for potential graduate students:

What qualities are you looking for in a graduate student? 

The ones with a solid quantitative background. 

How would you describe your mentoring style? 

I will work closely with you on the topics that you are interested in. 

Education:

  • PhD. Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, 2015 
  • Master of Economics, Tilburg University, 2012 
  • Bachelor of Arts, Finance, Xiamen University, 2010 

Other Qualifications:

  • Fellow of the Society of Actuaries, 2019 
  • Associate Fellow of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, 2018 
  • Data Analytics 
  • Insurance Economics 
  • Actuarial Science 
  • Demography 
  • Asset Pricing 
  1. Assessing the Effectiveness of the Actuaries Climate Index for Estimating the Impact of Extreme Weather on Crop Yield and Insurance Applications. Sustainability, accepted. (with Qimeng Pan and Lysa Porth)
  2. Robust information share measures with an application on the international crude oil markets. Journal of Futures Markets, 42(4), 555-579​. (with Yanlin Shi)
  3. Coherent mortality forecasting for less developed countries. Risks, 9(9), 151. (with Yang Lu and Pintao Lyu)
  4. Robust Estimates of Insurance Misrepresentation through Kernel Quantile Regression Mixtures. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 88(3), 625 - 663. (with Qifan Song and Jianxi Su)
  5. Tail Index-Linked Annuity: A Longevity Risk Sharing Retirement Plan. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, accepted. (with An Chen and Mark Benedikt Schultze)
  6. A New Unique Information Share Measure with Applications on Cross-listed Chinese Banks. Journal of Banking and Finance, 2021(128), 106 - 141.  (with Yanlin Shi)
  7. Forecasting Mortality with International Linkages: a Global Vector-Autoregression Approach. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2021(100), 59 - 75.  (with Yanlin Shi)
  8. Mortality Forecasting with an Age-Coherent Sparse VAR Model. Risks 9(2), 35. (with Yanlin Shi)
  9. Gompertz Law Revisited: Forecasting Mortality with a Multi-factor Exponential Model. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2021(99), 268 - 281. (with Ken Seng Tan, Shripad Tuljapurka, and Wenjun Zhu)
  10. Improved Index Insurance Design and Yield Estimation using a Dynamic Factor Forecasting Approach. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 2021(96), 208 - 221. (with Lysa Porth, Ken Seng Tan, and Wenjun Zhu)
  11. Dynamic Bayesian Ratemaking: A Markov Chain Approximation Approach. North American Actuarial Journal, 25(2), 186 – 205. (with Yang Lu and Wenjun Zhu)
  12. A Forecast Reconciliation Approach to Cause-of-Death Mortality Modeling. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2019 (86), 122 - 133. (with Han Li, Anastasios Panagiotelis, and Yang Lu)
  13. Modeling Cause-of-Death Mortality Using Hierarchical Archimedean Copula. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2019(3), 247 - 272. (with Yang Lu)
  14. A Bayesian Non-parametric Model for Small Population Mortality. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2018(7), 605 - 628. (with Yang Lu)
  15. Dynamic hedging of longevity risk: the effect of trading frequency. ASTIN Bulletin, 48(1), 197 - 232.
  16. ​Modeling and forecasting mortality with economic growth: a multi-population approach. ​Demography, 54(5), 1921 - 1946. (with Tim J. Boonen)
  17. ​Optimizing the Lee-Carter Approach in the presence of structural changes in the time- and age-patterns of mortality improvements. Demography, 54(3), 1073 - 1095. (with​  Johnny S.H. Li)
  18. Coherent Forecasting of Mortality Rates: A Sparse Vector-Autoregression Approach.  ASTIN Bulletin - The Journal of the International Actuarial Association,  47(2), 563-600. (with Yang Lu)
  19. Robust Mean-Variance Hedging of Longevity Risk. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 84, 459– 475. (with Anja De Waegenaere and Bertrand Melenberg)
  20. The Choice of Sample Size for Mortality Forecasting: A Bayesian Learning Approach. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics (with Anja De Waegenaere and Bertrand Melenberg)
  • FIN*4200 Risk Management in Finance and Insurance 
  • ECON*2770 Introductory Mathematical Economics 

Active Fundings:

  1. Climate change and property and casualty insurance: a risk management perspective. SSHRC Insight Development Grant, 2022 - 2024 (69,623 CAD)
  2. On a Composite Spatial-Temporal Analysis of Insurance Losses due to Natural Catastrophes Project. The Canadian Institute of Actuaries, 2021 - 2022 (18,700 CAD). (with Jianxi Su)
  3. Interpretable Random Forests for Risk-informed Modeling in Healthcare Management. Society of Actuaries, 2021 Individual Grant (13,000 USD). (with Qifan Song and Jianxi Su)
  4. Spatial-Temporal Modeling of Wildfire Losses with Applications in Insurance-Linked Securities Pricing. Casualty Actuarial Society, 2021 (18,000 USD). (with Jianxi Su)
  5. Stochastic Mortality Modeling and Longevity Risk Management in Multiple-population Context. NSERC Discovery Grants --- Individual, 2020 - 2025 (127,500 CAD).

The 2018 Bob Alting von Geusau Prize for the best paper published in ASTIN Bulletin with a Financial Risk or Enterprise Risk Management focus. 

Area of Research

Economics/Finance